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Long-Range Futures Research: An Application of Complexity Science, by Robert H. Samet
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Succinct and user-friendly, Long-Range Futures Research: An Application of Complexity Science by Robert H. Samet explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system and a new world view. Written for the systems science, and environmental, social and management science schools of futures studies, this book is fully annotated and meticulously researched and penned. Broken into four parts including thirteen chapters and appendices, this technical guide looks at the future evolutionary trajectory and geopolitical macrostructure in relation to other international models and global reference scenarios. Highly readable, it interprets long-range emergent phenomena, using empirical data from accepted contemporary sources of information such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The next generation of forward-thinking world leaders must expand ways of analysing problems and undertaking futures research.
- Sales Rank: #4617856 in Books
- Published on: 2009-03-24
- Released on: 2009-03-24
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 10.00" h x 1.40" w x 7.00" l, 2.33 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 618 pages
Review
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This is an extremely ambitious and important book. A veritable tour-de-force in the application of complexity science. Well-conceived, well researched and well written. For those of us concerned with connecting uncertainty, complexity and systems thinking within the context of urban spatial structure it is a ‘must read’. It is rare for any author to tackle such a broad schema with such insight. It is equally rare to discover a thinker who can write about these intricate issues in intelligible prose. -- Professor John S. Ratcliffe, Former Director and Dean of the Faculty of the Built Environment at the Dublin Institute of Technology.
This is an ambitious book that uses complexity science, or the science of evolution and complexity, to look at challenges of global development and sustainability in the next two hundred years. In doing so, on the one hand it provides something like an overview of futures studies; on the other the growth of cities and spatial structure is taken as central to the historical and future evolution of civilisation. The large number of appendices, rich in information and concepts, add much value to this book. -- Dr Rakesh Kapoor, Director World Futures Studies Federation.
This is indeed complex and certainly science. For the global planner this is a reference, a work book, a crystal ball. Samet constructs a carefully crafted, rationalised model that underlies four fascinating scenarios. -- Peter F. Eder, World Future Review.
The sciences of evolution and complexity provide an approach for exploring the unprecedented patterns of global change expected in the future. Civil Engineer and futurist consultant Samet views the civil system’s ongoing process of development as akin to natural-world evolution. The civil system is, he says, as organic and evolutionary as Darwin’s model of biological change. Civil artefacts are a “second nature” that superimposes on the first and yet becomes entangled in it. -- Cynthia G. Wagner, Managing Editor, The Futurist.
This work is a magnificent intellectual achievement and pioneers an evolutionary theory of the future. The research behind the book is phenomenal and in cataloguing the deepest drivers of change, it will serve as a reference text for many years to come. The scale of thinking has opened my mind to multiple time horizons of both the past and the future. -- Michael Lee, Chairman of the South African Chapter, World Future Society.
From the Author
The author is convinced by the philosopher Bertrand Russell's view that knowledge concerning the future is possible within certain limits, although it is impossible to say how much the limits may be enlarged with the progress of science. Russell states in 'Our Knowledge of the External World' (1914) "But what is evident is that any proposition about the future belongs by its subject-matter to some particular science, and is to be ascertained, if at all, by the methods of that science".
The author's book 'Long-range futures Research: An application of complexity science' contains a set of 40 Appendices, including an extensive glossary of 150 terms, a bibliography of over 300 choice titles, and a comprehensive index. This provides the essential knowledge base for the development of complexity, the science of cities and long-range futures.
About the Author
Robert H. Samet is a civil engineer with forty years experience as a specialist consultant in planning and futures research. He was a consultant of US-based Planning Research Corporation that applied systems science approaches to international development programmes in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia. His clients included the Ministries of Planning in both Algeria and Saudi Arabia and also the Saudi Royal Commission for Industrial Cities. He directed a multi-client study to develop the London Megapolis Regional Information System to explain the changing gradients between locations in property investment returns. He is the author of four articles for the journal 'Futures': 'Futurists and their schools' (Vol. 42 (8) 2010), 'Exploring the future with complexity science: the emerging models' (Vol. 43 (8) 2011), 'Complexity science and theory development for the futures field' (Vol. 44 (5) 2012), and 'Complexity, the science of cities and long-range futures' (Vol. 47 (3) 2013). He and his wife live in a village in Lincolnshire, England, and have four married sons in the USA, Scotland, France and Switzerland.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
"Heavy" but Interesting
By Norman Orr
Complexity science (as a "formal" science) is only about 40 years old (since I'm twice that age, I think of it as a "young" science).This book is very thorough and well written, and it's nice to know that within only 40 years the subject has obtained enough credibility to be considered by a wide range of subject matter experts in a fairly wide variety of fields. Chapter 3 gives a brief "history" of some of the basic concepts of complexity science, which will be interesting for new readers about the field.
While I didn't find EXACTLY what I had hoped in the book (I was hoping for something that probably hasn't been written yet), I did find it very interesting and have already recommended it to a long time friend who has an intense interest in planning. If you are interested in the prospects for the planet, you'll be pleased to find that at least some folk are attempting to anticipate, and therefore possibly improve, prospects for the earth on a L O N G range perspective.
0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Promised more than it delivered
By Amazon Customer
A big book that can be boiled down to a sentence: Human society has predictable patterns and once you discover those patterns you can predict the future.
Now, that only applies to broad general future predictions and it completely ignores the impact disruptive technologies have on these predictable patterns. So, you really can't do long-range futures research because of emergent behaviors as described in complexity science. Thus, the author inadvertently refutes the premise of his own book.
You are better off reading some good books on scenario planning if you want to do some actual futures research.
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